Regional (In)stability in Europe: a Quantitative Model of State Fragmentation

Although there is a rich and burgeoning theoretical literature on regional (in)stability, its empirical implications remain unclear due to the scarcity of complementary quantitative research. This paper presents simulated experimental findings on spatial heterogeneity in secession proneness across 264 regions belonging to 26 European countries. To do so, it develops a broad model of state fragmentation that reconciles the views of the dominant strands in the literature. In order to apply the model, a novel indicator of regional political distinctiveness is proposed, rooted in the discrepancy between regional and national electoral behavior. Using this new indicator, we show that regional electoral heterogeneity has been on the rise in Europe in the past 40 years, offering an empirical rationale for the simultaneous rise in regionalism that is consistent with contemporary economic thinking on optimal country size. Calibrating our model to the current European situation, we find that Catalonia, Flanders and the Basque country are the regions currently predicted to be the most likely to break away. In line with these results, governments in all three regions have consistently vocalized demands for increased autonomy - or even secession - in recent years. Denmark, Hungary and Slovenia show up as the most secession-robust European countries.

Publication year:2020

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BOF-publication weight:1

CSS-citation score:1

Authors from:Government, Higher Education

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