Model-based calculations of surface mass balance of mountain glaciers for the purpose of water consumption planning: focus on Djankuat Glacier (Central Caucasus)

Mountain glaciers act as regulators of run-off in the summer period, which is very crucial for economy especially in dynamically developing regions with rapidly growing population, such as Central Asia or the Northern Caucasus in Russia. In overall, glaciers stabilize water consumption in comparatively arid areas and provide conditions for sustainable development of the economy in mountainous regions and in the surrounding territories. A proper prediction of the glacial run-off is required to elaborate strategies of the regional development. This goal can be achieved by implementation of mathematical modeling methods into planning methodologies. In the paper, we consider one of the first steps in glacier dynamical modeling - surface mass balance simulation. We focus on the Djankuat Glacier in the Central Caucasus, where regular observations have been conducted during the last fifty years providing an exceptional opportunity to calibrate and to validate a mathematical model.