Does Sea Surface Temperature Contribute to Determining Range Limits and Expansion of Mangroves in Eastern South America (Brazil)?

Low Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is a climate barrier because it may inhibit and reduce seedling growth of mangrove propagules upon dispersal through seawater. Our objective is to analyze the spatio-temporal series of daily SST data from the Multi-scale Ultra-high Resolution (MUR)-SST in order to identify the occurrence of chilling events for mangrove plants at the Eastern South America mangrove limit and beyond. We focus our study on three key sites: (i) the Rhizophora mangle L. distribution limit (Praia do Sonho: 27°530S), (ii) the Eastern South America mangrove limit (Laguna: 28°300S) and (iii) one beyond mangrove areas, in Araranguá (28°550S). Our results show that, in Araranguá, chilling events are more intense and occur more frequently than in the other two sites that have a mangrove cover. We conclude that, the chilling events of SST may play a role in restricting mangroves within their actual limits. In this sense, higher occurrences of chilling events of SST could be an explanation for the absence of R. mangle in Laguna. However, Laguncularia racemosa (L.) C.F. Gaertn. was reported to be tolerant to low temperatures, and yet it is absent from the southernmost study site. This may be an indication of the role of other factors than SST in determining a mangrove range expansion, such as dispersal constraints.