Titel Deelnemers "Korte inhoud" "Ice sheet extent and early deglacial history of the southwestern sector of the Greenland ice sheet" "D.h. Roberts, Anthony Long, Christoph Schnabel, Bethan J. Davies, Sheng Xu, Matthew Simpson" "The offshore and coastal geomorphology of southwest Greenland records evidence for the advance and decay of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. Regional ice flow patterns in the vicinity of Sisimiut show an enlarged ice sheet that extended southwestwards on to the shelf, with an ice stream centred over Holsteinsborg dyb. High level periglacial terrain composed of blockfield and tors is dated to between 101 and 142 ka using 26Al and 10Be cosmogenic exposure ages. These limit the maximum surface elevation of the Last Glacial Maximum ice sheet in this part of southwest Greenland to ca 750-810 masl, and demonstrate that terrain above this level has been ice free since MIS 6. Last Glacial Maximum ice thickness on the coast of ca 700 m implies that the ice sheet reached the mid to outer continental shelf edge to form the Outer Hellefisk moraines. Exposure dates record ice surface thinning from 21.0 to 9.8 ka, with downwasting rates varying from 0.06 to 0.12 myr-1. This reflects strong surface ablation associated with increased air temperatures running up to the Bølling Interstadial (GIS1e) at ca 14 ka, and later marine calving under high sea levels. The relatively late retreat of the Itilleq ice stream inland of the present coastline is similar to the pattern observed at Jakobshavn Isbræ, located 250 km north in Disko Bugt, which also retreated from the continental shelf after ca 10 ka. We hypothesise that the ice streams of West Greenland persisted on the inner shelf until the early Holocene because of their considerable ice thickness and greater ice discharge compared with the adjacent ice sheet." "A rapidly converging initialisation method to simulate the present-day Greenland ice sheet using the GRISLI ice sheet model (version 1.3)" "Sébastien Le Clec'H, Aurelien Quiquet, Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, Catherine Ritz" "Providing reliable projections of the ice sheet contribution to future sea-level rise has become one of the main challenges of the ice sheet modelling community. To increase confidence in future projections, a good knowledge of the present-day state of ice flow dynamics, which is critically dependent on basal conditions, is strongly needed. The main difficulty is tied to the scarcity of observations at the ice-bed interface at the scale of the whole ice sheet, resulting in poorly constrained parameterisations in ice sheet models. To circumvent this drawback, inverse modelling approaches can be developed to infer initial conditions for ice sheet models that best reproduce available data. Most often such approaches allow for a good representation of the mean present-day state of the ice sheet but are accompanied with unphysical trends. Here, we present an initialisation method for the Greenland ice sheet using the thermo-mechanical hybrid GRISLI (GRenoble Ice Shelf and Land Ice) ice sheet model. Our approach is based on the adjustment of the basal drag coefficient that relates the sliding velocities at the ice-bed interface to basal shear stress in unfrozen bed areas. This method relies on an iterative process in which the basal drag is periodically adjusted in such a way that the simulated ice thickness matches the observed one. The quality of the method is assessed by computing the root mean square errors in ice thickness changes. Because the method is based on an adjustment of the sliding velocities only, the results are discussed in terms of varying ice flow enhancement factors that control the deformation rates. We show that this factor has a strong impact on the minimisation of ice thickness errors and has to be chosen as a function of the internal thermal state of the ice sheet (e.g. a low enhancement factor for a warm ice sheet). While the method performance slightly increases with the duration of the minimisation procedure, an ice thickness root mean square error (RMSE) of 50.3m is obtained in only 1320 model years. This highlights a rapid convergence and demonstrates that the method can be used for computationally expensive ice sheet models." "Ice sheet extent and early deglacial history of the southwestern sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet" "Philippe Huybrechts" "The offshore and coastal geomorphology of southwest Greenland records evidence for the advance and decay of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. Regional ice flow patterns in the vicinity of Sisimiut show an enlarged ice sheet that extended southwestwards on to the shelf, with an ice stream centred over Holsteinsborg dyb. High level periglacial terrain composed of blockfield and tors is dated to between 101 and 142 ka using 26Al and 10Be cosmogenic exposure ages. These limit the maximum surface elevation of the Last Glacial Maximum ice sheet in this part of southwest Greenland to ca 750-810 m asl, and demonstrate that terrain above this level has been ice free since MIS 6. Last Glacial Maximum ice thickness on the coast of ca 700 m implies that the ice sheet reached the mid to outer continental shelf edge to form the Outer Hellefisk moraines. Exposure dates record ice surface thinning from 21.0 to 9.8 ka, with downwasting rates varying from 0.06 to 0.12 m yr-1. This reflects strong surface ablation associated with increased air temperatures running up to the Bølling Interstadial (GIS1e) at ca 14 ka, and later marine calving under high sea levels. The relatively late retreat of the Itilleq ice stream inland of the present coastline is similar to the pattern observed at Jakobshavn Isbræ, located 250 km north in Disko Bugt, which also retreated from the continental shelf after ca 10 ka. We hypothesise that the ice streams of West Greenland persisted on the inner shelf until the early Holocene because of their considerable ice thickness and greater ice discharge compared with the adjacent ice sheet. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved." "A model of Greenland ice sheet deglaciation constrained by observations of relative sea level and ice extent" "Benoit Lecavalier, Glenn Milne, Matthew Simpson, Leanne Wake, Philippe Huybrechts, Kristian Kjeldsen, Svend Funder, Anthony Long, Sarah Woodroffe, Arthur Dyke, Nicolaj Larsen" "An ice sheet model was constrained to reconstruct the evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present to improve our understanding of its response to climate change. The study involved applying a glaciological model in series with a glacial isostatic adjustment and relative sea-level (RSL) model. The model reconstruction builds upon the work of Simpson et al. (2009) through four main extensions: (1) a larger constraint database consisting of RSL and ice extent data; model improvements to the (2) climate and (3) sea-level forcing components; (4) accounting for uncertainties in non-Greenland ice. The research was conducted primarily to address data-model misfits and to quantify inherent model uncertainties with the Earth structure and non-Greenland ice. Our new model (termed Huy3) fits the majority of observations and is characterised by a number of defining features. During the LGM, the ice sheet had an excess of 4.7 m ice-equivalent sea-level (IESL), which reached a maximum volume of 5.1 m IESL at 16.5 cal. ka BP. Modelled retreat of ice from the continental shelf progressed at different rates and timings in different sectors. Southwest and Southeast Greenland began to retreat from the continental shelf by ~16 to 14 cal. ka BP, thus responding in part to the Bølling-Allerød warm event (c. 14.5 cal. ka BP); subsequently ice at the southern tip of Greenland readvanced during the Younger Dryas cold event. In northern Greenland the ice retreated rapidly from the continental shelf upon the climatic recovery out of the Younger Dryas to present-day conditions. Upon entering the Holocene (11.7 cal. ka BP), the ice sheet soon became land-based. During the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM; 9-5 cal. ka BP), air temperatures across Greenland were marginally higher than those at present and the GrIS margin retreated inland of its present-day southwest position by 40 to 60 km at 4 cal. ka BP which produced a deficit volume of 0.16 m IESL relative to present. In response to the HTM warmth, our optimal model reconstruction lost mass at a maximum centennial rate of c. 103.4 Gt/yr. Our results suggest that remaining data-model discrepancies are affiliated with missing physics and sub-grid processes of the glaciological model, uncertainties in the climate forcing, lateral Earth structure, and non-Greenland ice (particularly the North American component). Finally, applying the Huy3 Greenland reconstruction with our optimal Earth model we generate present-day uplift rates across Greenland due to past changes in the ocean and ice loads with explicit error bars due to uncertainties in the Earth structure. Present-day uplift rates due to past changes are spatially variable and range from 3.5 to -7 mm/a (including Earth model uncertainty)." "High Arctic Holocene temperature record from the Agassiz ice cap and Greenland ice sheet evolution" "Benoit Lecavalier, David A. Fischer, Glenn Milne, Bo M Vinther, Philippe Huybrechts, Denis Lacelle, Brittany Main, James Zheng, Jocelyne Bourgeois, Arthur Dyke" "We present a revised and extended high Arctic air temperature reconstruction from a single proxy that spans the past ∼12,000 y (up to 2009 CE). Our reconstruction from the Agassiz ice cap (Ellesmere Island, Canada) indicates an earlier and warmer Holocene thermal maximum with early Holocene temperatures that are 4–5 °C warmer compared with a previous reconstruction, and regularly exceed contemporary values for a period of ∼3,000 y. Our results show that air temperatures in this region are now at their warmest in the past 6,800–7,800 y, and that the recent rate of temperature change is unprecedented over the entire Holocene. The warmer early Holocene inferred from the Agassiz ice core leads to an estimated ∼1 km of ice thinning in northwest Greenland during the early Holocene using the Camp Century ice core. Ice modeling results show that this large thinning is consistent with our air temperature reconstruction. The modeling results also demonstrate the broader significance of the enhanced warming, with a retreat of the northern ice margin behind its present position in the mid Holocene and a ∼25% increase in total Greenland ice sheet mass loss (∼1.4 m sea-level equivalent) during the last deglaciation, both of which have implications for interpreting geodetic measurements of land uplift and gravity changes in northern Greenland." "Calibrating a glaciological model of the Greenland ice sheet from the last glacial maximum to present-day using field observations of relative sea level and ice extent" "Matthew Simpson, Glenn Milne, Anthony Long" "We constrain a three-dimensional thermomechanical model of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) evolution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka BP) to the present-day using, primarily, observations of relative sea level (RSL) as well as field data on past ice extent. Our new model (Huy2) fits a majority of the observations and is characterised by a number of key features: (i) the ice sheet had an excess volume (relative to present) of 4.1 m ice-equivalent sea level at the LGM, which increased to reach a maximum value of 4.6 m at 16.5 ka BP; (ii) retreat from the continental shelf was not continuous around the entire margin, as there was a Younger Dryas readvance in some areas. The final episode of marine retreat was rapid and relatively late (c. 12 ka BP), leaving the ice sheet land based by 10 ka BP; (iii) in response to the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) the ice margin retreated behind its present-day position by up to 80 km in the southwest, 20 km in the south and 80 km in a small area of the northeast. As a result of this retreat the modelled ice sheet reaches a minimum extent between 5 and 4 ka BP, which corresponds to a deficit volume (relative to present) of 0.17 m ice-equivalent sea level. Our results suggest that remaining discrepancies between the model and the observations are likely associated with non-Greenland ice load, differences between modelled and observed present-day ice elevation around the margin, lateral variations in Earth structure and/or the pattern of ice margin retreat." "Assessment of the Greenland ice sheet-atmosphere feedbacks for the next century with a regional atmospheric model coupled to an ice sheet model" "Sébastien Le Clec'H, Sylvie Charbit, Aurélien Quiquet, Xavier Fettweis, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, Coraline Wyard, Catherine Ritz" "In the context of global warming, growing attention is paid to the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to sea-level rise at the centennial timescale. Atmosphere-GrIS interactions, such as the temperature-elevation and the albedo feedbacks, have the potential to modify the surface energy balance and thus to impact the GrIS surface mass balance (SMB). In turn, changes in the geometrical features of the ice sheet may alter both the climate and the ice dynamics governing the ice sheet evolution. However, changes in ice sheet geometry are generally not explicitly accounted for when simulating atmospheric changes over the Greenland ice sheet in the future. To account for ice sheet-climate interactions, we developed the first two-way synchronously coupled model between a regional atmospheric model (MAR) and a 3-D ice sheet model (GRISLI). Using this novel model, we simulate the ice sheet evolution from 2000 to 2150 under a prolonged representative concentration pathway scenario, RCP8.5. Changes in surface elevation and ice sheet extent simulated by GRISLI have a direct impact on the climate simulated by MAR. They are fed to MAR from 2020 onwards, i.e. when changes in SMB produce significant topography changes in GRISLI. We further assess the importance of the atmosphere-ice sheet feedbacks through the comparison of the two-way coupled experiment with two other simulations based on simpler coupling strategies: (i) a one-way coupling with no consideration of any change in ice sheet geometry; (ii) an alternative oneway coupling in which the elevation change feedbacks are parameterized in the ice sheet model (from 2020 onwards) without taking into account the changes in ice sheet topography in the atmospheric model. The two-way coupled experiment simulates an important increase in surface melt below 2000m of elevation, resulting in an important SMB reduction in 2150 and a shift of the equilibrium line towards elevations as high as 2500 m, despite a slight increase in SMB over the central plateau due to enhanced snowfall. In relation with these SMB changes, modifications of ice sheet geometry favour ice flux convergence towards the margins, with an increase in ice velocities in the GrIS interior due to increased surface slopes and a decrease in ice velocities at the margins due to decreasing ice thickness. This convergence counteracts the SMB signal in these areas. In the two-way coupling, the SMB is also influenced by changes in finescale atmospheric dynamical processes, such as the increase in katabatic winds from central to marginal regions induced by increased surface slopes. Altogether, the GrIS contribution to sea-level rise, inferred from variations in ice volume above floatation, is equal to 20.4 cm in 2150. The comparison between the coupled and the two uncoupled experiments suggests that the effect of the different feedbacks is amplified over time with the most important feedbacks being the SMB-elevation feedbacks. As a result, the experiment with parameterized SMB-elevation feedback provides a sea-level contribution from GrIS in 2150 only 2.5% lower than the two-way coupled experiment, while the experiment with no feedback is 9.3% lower. The change in the ablation area in the two-way coupled experiment is much larger than those provided by the two simplest methods, with an underestimation of 11.7% (14 %) with parameterized feedbacks (no feedback). In addition, we quantify that computing the GrIS contribution to sea-level rise from SMB changes only over a fixed ice sheet mask leads to an overestimation of ice loss of at least 6% compared to the use of a time variable ice sheet mask. Finally, our results suggest that ice-loss estimations diverge when using the different coupling strategies, with differences from the two-way method becoming significant at the end of the 21st century. In particular, even if averaged over the whole GrIS the climatic and ice sheet fields are relatively similar; at the local and regional scale there are important differences, highlighting the importance of correctly representing the interactions when interested in basin scale changes." "Calibrating a glaciological model of the Greenland ice sheet from the Last Glacial Maximum to present-day using field observations of relative sea level and ice extent" "Philippe Huybrechts" "We constrain a three-dimensional thermomechanical model of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) evolution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka BP) to the present-day using, primarily, observations of relative sea level (RSL) as well as field data on past ice extent. Our new model (Huy2) fits a majority of the observations and is characterised by a number of key features: (i) the ice sheet had an excess volume (relative to present) of 4.1 m ice-equivalent sea level at the LGM, which increased to reach a maximum value of 4.6 m at 16.5 ka BP; (ii) retreat from the continental shelf was not continuous around the entire margin, as there was a Younger Dryas readvance in some areas. The final episode of marine retreat was rapid and relatively late (c. 12 ka BP), leaving the ice sheet land based by 10 ka BP; (iii) in response to the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) the ice margin retreated behind its present-day position by up to 80 km in the southwest, 20 km in the south and 80 km in a small area of the northeast. As a result of this retreat the modelled ice sheet reaches a minimum extent between 5 and 4 ka BP, which corresponds to a deficit volume (relative to present) of 0.17 m ice-equivalent sea level. Our results suggest that remaining discrepancies between the model and the observations are likely associated with non-Greenland ice load, differences between modelled and observed present-day ice elevation around the margin, lateral variations in Earth structure and/or the pattern of ice margin retreat. Crown Copyright © 2009." "The Greenland Ice Sheet at the peak of warming during the previous Interglacial" "Oleg Rybak, Philippe Huybrechts" "The Last Interglacial (LIG or the Eemian) between ca. 130 and 115 kyr BP is probably the best analogue for future climate warming for which increasingly better proxy data are becoming available. The volume of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) during this period is of particular interest to better assess how much and how fast sea-level can rise in a future Earth undergoing gradual climatic warming. Sea-level during the LIG is inferred to have been up to 9 meter higher than today, but contribution of the GrIS into this rise remains unclear. Various ice-sheet modeling studies have come up with a very broad range of the LIG volume loss by the GrIS to between 60 cm and 6 m of equivalent sea-level rise. This wide range is explained by the sensitivity of GrIS models to the imposed climatic conditions and to poor knowledge of the LIG climate itself in terms of the magnitude and precise timing of the maximum warming, as well as in terms of spatial and annual patterns. To partially circumvent these uncertainties we made use of the newest temperature record over the Central Greenland reconstructed from the isotopic composition of the recently obtained NEEM ice core containing undisturbed LIG segment to build the climatic forcing of the model. The NEEM record unequivocally indicates times of the start and of the end of the LIG warming in Greenland as well as the duration of the warmest time period within the Eemian. Using a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet model, we produced an ensemble of possible LIG configurations by varying only four key parameters for temperature, precipitation rate, surface melting magnitude and melting pattern within realistic bounds. The outcome of a series of the numerical experiments is a variety of glaciologically consistent GrIS geometries corresponding to a wide range of possible «climates». To constrain the ensemble of GrIS geometries, we used data inferred from 5 Greenland ice cores such as the presence or absence of LIG ice, borehole temperature and isotopic composition. Lagrangian backtracing of particles was used to calculate non-climatic biases in isotopic records introduced by horizontal advection, systematic latitudinal contrast and local elevation changes. Comparison of model-generated ice-core characteristics with the observed data enabled to narrow down the ensemble to a bound on the GrIS contribution to the LIG sea-level rise of between 1.3 and 2.9 m with the best choice of 1.8–2.2 m. This conclusion in general supports the point of view about the modest GrIS contribution to global sea level rise during the LIG." "Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea level rise" "Sarah R. Shannon, Tony Payne, Ian D. Bartholomew, Michiel Van Den Broeke, Tamsin L. Edwards, Xavier Fettweis, Olivier Gagliardini, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Matthew J. Hoffman, Philippe Huybrechts, D. Mair, Pete Nienow, Mauro Perego, Stephen Price, Paul Smeets, Andrew J. Sole, Roderik S. W. Van De Wal, Thomas Zwinger" "We assess the effect of enhanced basal sliding on the flow and mass budget of the Greenland ice sheet, using a newly developed parameterization of the relation between meltwater runoff and ice flow. A wide range of observations suggest that water generated by melt at the surface of the ice sheet reaches its bed by both fracture and drainage through moulins. Once at the bed, this water is likely to affect lubrication, although current observations are insufficient to determine whether changes in subglacial hydraulics will limit the potential for the speedup of flow. An uncertainty analysis based on our best-fit parameterization admits both possibilities: continuously increasing or bounded lubrication. We apply the parameterization to four higher-order ice-sheet models in a series of experiments forced by changes in both lubrication and surface mass budget and determine the additional mass loss brought about by lubrication in comparison with experiments forced only by changes in surface mass balance. We use forcing from a regional climate model, itself forced by output from the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global climate model run under scenario A1B. Although changes in lubrication generate widespread effects on the flow and form of the ice sheet, they do not affect substantial net mass loss; increase in the ice sheet's contribution to sea-level rise from basal lubrication is projected by all models to be nomore than 5% of the contribution from surface mass budget forcing alone."