Publicaties

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Reconstruction of the Historical (1750–2020) Mass Balance of Bordu, Kara-Batkak and Sary-Tor Glaciers in the Inner Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan Vrije Universiteit Brussel

Lander Van Tricht, Chloë Paice, Oleg Rybak, Rysbek Satylkanov, Viktor Popovnin, Olga Solomina, Philippe Huybrechts
The mean specific mass balance of a glacier represents the direct link between a glacier and the local climate. Hence, it is intensively monitored throughout the world. In the Kyrgyz Tien Shan, glaciers are of crucial importance with regard to water supply for the surrounding areas. It is therefore essential to know how these glaciers behave due to climate change and how they will evolve in the future. In the Soviet era, multiple glaciological ...

A Gaussian process emulator for simulating ice sheet–climate interactions on a multi-million-year timescale: CLISEMv1.0 Vrije Universiteit Brussel KU Leuven

Jonas Van Breedam, Philippe Huybrechts, Michel Crucifix
On multi-million-year timescales, fully coupled ice sheet–climate simulations are hampered by computational limitations, even at coarser resolutions and when using asynchronous coupling schemes. In this study, a novel coupling method CLISEMv1.0 (CLimate–Ice Sheet EMulator version 1.0) is presented, where a Gaussian process emulator is applied to the climate model HadSM3 and coupled to the ice sheet model AISMPALEO. The temperature and ...

Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets Vrije Universiteit Brussel KU Leuven

Antony J. Payne, Sophie Nowicki, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, et al.
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of ...

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise Vrije Universiteit Brussel KU Leuven

Tamsin L. Edwards, Sophie Nowicki, Ben Marzeion, Regine Hock, Heiko Goelzer, Helene Seroussi, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Donald A. Slater, Fiona E. Turner, Christopher J. Smith, et al.

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not ...

Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2) Vrije Universiteit Brussel KU Leuven

Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, et al.
The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica’s future contribution to global sea level rise that arises ...

Eemian Greenland ice sheet simulated with a higher-order model shows strong sensitivity to surface mass balance forcing Vrije Universiteit Brussel

Andreas Plach, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Petra M. Langebroek, Andreas Born, Sébastien Le Clec'H

The Greenland ice sheet contributes increasingly to global sea level rise. Its history during past warm intervals is a valuable reference for future sea level projections. We present ice sheet simulations for the Eemian interglacial period (∼130 000 to 115 000 years ago), a period with warmer-than-present summer climate over Greenland. The evolution of the Eemian Greenland ice sheet is simulated with a 3-D higher-order ice sheet model, forced ...

A rapidly converging initialisation method to simulate the present-day Greenland ice sheet using the GRISLI ice sheet model (version 1.3) Vrije Universiteit Brussel

Sébastien Le Clec'H, Aurelien Quiquet, Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, Catherine Ritz

Providing reliable projections of the ice sheet contribution to future sea-level rise has become one of the main challenges of the ice sheet modelling community. To increase confidence in future projections, a good knowledge of the present-day state of ice flow dynamics, which is critically dependent on basal conditions, is strongly needed. The main difficulty is tied to the scarcity of observations at the ice-bed interface at the scale of ...

initMIP-Antarctica: an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6 Vrije Universiteit Brussel KU Leuven

Helene Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, et al.

Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their ...

Unravelling the high-altitude Nansen blue ice field meteorite trap (East Antarctica) and implications for regional palaeo-conditions Vrije Universiteit Brussel KU Leuven

Harry Zekollari, Steven Goderis, Vinciane Debaille, Matthias Van Ginneken, Jérôme Gattacceca, The ASTER team, A.J. Timothy Jull, Jan T.M. Lenaerts, Akira Yamaguchi, Philippe Huybrechts, et al.
Antarctic blue ice zones, the most productive locations for meteorite recovery on Earth, contain old ice that is easily accessible and available in large quantities. However, the mechanisms behind these meteorite traps remain a topic of ongoing debate. Here, we propose an interdisciplinary approach to improve our understanding of a meteorite trap in Dronning Maud Land (East Antarctica) on the Nansen blue ice field meteorite trap (2600–3100 m ...

Assessment of the Greenland ice sheet-atmosphere feedbacks for the next century with a regional atmospheric model coupled to an ice sheet model Vrije Universiteit Brussel

Sébastien Le Clec'H, Sylvie Charbit, Aurélien Quiquet, Xavier Fettweis, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, Coraline Wyard, Catherine Ritz

In the context of global warming, growing attention is paid to the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to sea-level rise at the centennial timescale. Atmosphere-GrIS interactions, such as the temperature-elevation and the albedo feedbacks, have the potential to modify the surface energy balance and thus to impact the GrIS surface mass balance (SMB). In turn, changes in the geometrical features of the ice sheet may ...