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Thermal regime of the Grigoriev ice cap and the Sary-Tor glacier in the inner Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan Vrije Universiteit Brussel KU Leuven

Lander Van Tricht, Philippe Huybrechts
The thermal regime of glaciers and ice caps represents the internal distribution of ice temperatures. An accurate knowledge of the thermal regime of glaciers and ice caps is important to understand their dynamics and response to climate change and to model their evolution. Although the assumption is that most ice masses in the Tien Shan are polythermal, this has not been examined in appropriate detail so far. In this research, we investigate the ...

Independent Quality Assessment of Essential Climate Variables: Lessons learnt from the Copernicus Climate Change Service Vrije Universiteit Brussel KU Leuven

Chiara Cagnazzo, Vincenzo Artale, Bruno Biongiorno Nardelli, Carlo Buontempo, Jacopo Busatto, Luca Caporaso, Claudia Cesarini, Irene Cionni, John Coll
If climate services are to lead to effective use of climate information in decision-making to enable the transition to a climate-smart, climate-ready world, then the question of trust in the products and services is of paramount importance. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has been actively grappling with how to build such trust: provision of demonstrably independent assessments of the quality of products, which was deemed an ...

PARASO, a circum-Antarctic fully coupled ice-sheet-ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere-land model involving f.ETISh1.7, NEMO3.6, LIM3.6, COSM05.0 and CLM4.5 Vrije Universiteit Brussel KU Leuven

Charles Pelletier, Thierry Fichefet, Hugues Goosse, Konstanze Haubner, Samuel Helsen, Pierre-Vincent Huot, Christoph Kittel, Francois Klein, Sébastien Le Clec'H, Nicole Van Lipzig, et al.
We introduce PARASO, a novel five-component fully coupled regional climate model over an Antarctic circumpolar domain covering the full Southern Ocean. The state-of-the-art models used are the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet model (f.ETISh) v1.7 (ice sheet), the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) v3.6 (ocean), the Louvain-la-Neuve sea-ice model (LIM) v3.6 (sea ice), the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling (COSMO) model ...

Modelling the early Cenozoic Antarctic ice sheet history Vrije Universiteit Brussel

Jonas Van Breedam
It is generally believed that the Cenozoic Antarctic ice sheet history started at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary (34.44-33.65 Ma), when small, isolated ice caps grew into a continental-scale ice sheet. Evidence pointing towards the appearance of the large terrestrial ice sheet are a ~1.2-1.5‰ increase in the global benthic oxygen isotope stack, the deposition of ice-rafted debris close to the Antarctic continent at around 34 Ma and a ...

Reconstruction of the Historical (1750–2020) Mass Balance of Bordu, Kara-Batkak and Sary-Tor Glaciers in the Inner Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan Vrije Universiteit Brussel KU Leuven

Lander Van Tricht, Chloë Paice, Oleg Rybak, Rysbek Satylkanov, Viktor Popovnin, Olga Solomina, Philippe Huybrechts
The mean specific mass balance of a glacier represents the direct link between a glacier and the local climate. Hence, it is intensively monitored throughout the world. In the Kyrgyz Tien Shan, glaciers are of crucial importance with regard to water supply for the surrounding areas. It is therefore essential to know how these glaciers behave due to climate change and how they will evolve in the future. In the Soviet era, multiple glaciological ...

A Gaussian process emulator for simulating ice sheet–climate interactions on a multi-million-year timescale: CLISEMv1.0 Vrije Universiteit Brussel

Jonas Van Breedam, Philippe Huybrechts, Michel Crucifix
On multi-million-year timescales, fully coupled ice sheet–climate simulations are hampered by computational limitations, even at coarser resolutions and when using asynchronous coupling schemes. In this study, a novel coupling method CLISEMv1.0 (CLimate–Ice Sheet EMulator version 1.0) is presented, where a Gaussian process emulator is applied to the climate model HadSM3 and coupled to the ice sheet model AISMPALEO. The temperature and ...

Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets Vrije Universiteit Brussel KU Leuven

Antony J. Payne, Sophie Nowicki, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cecile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, et al.
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of ...

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise Vrije Universiteit Brussel KU Leuven

Tamsin L. Edwards, Sophie Nowicki, Ben Marzeion, Regine Hock, Heiko Goelzer, Helene Seroussi, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Donald A. Slater, Fiona E. Turner, Christopher J. Smith, et al.

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not ...

Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2) Vrije Universiteit Brussel KU Leuven

Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy
The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica’s future contribution to global sea level rise that arises ...

A rapidly converging initialisation method to simulate the present-day Greenland ice sheet using the GRISLI ice sheet model (version 1.3) Vrije Universiteit Brussel

Sébastien Le Clec'H, Aurelien Quiquet, Sylvie Charbit, Christophe Dumas, Masa Kageyama, Catherine Ritz

Providing reliable projections of the ice sheet contribution to future sea-level rise has become one of the main challenges of the ice sheet modelling community. To increase confidence in future projections, a good knowledge of the present-day state of ice flow dynamics, which is critically dependent on basal conditions, is strongly needed. The main difficulty is tied to the scarcity of observations at the ice-bed interface at the scale of ...