Ambiguity in the positions of political parties: what causes it and how does it affect voters’ party preferences? (FWOAL1083)

Ambiguity is widespread in politics: parties often obscure their true
positions, give inconsistent signals, or simply remain silent to avoid
taking a clear stance on a policy issue. Such ambiguity challenges
democracy, as it prevents clarity in what policies parties pursue once
in office and it blocks citizens from casting an informed vote. Yet, we
only have fragmented and contradictory evidence on what causes
party ambiguity and how it affects voters’ political preferences. The
project innovates in three ways. (1) it reconceptualizes party
ambiguity as a multidimensional phenomenon: ambiguity occurs
when a party remains silent on its position on a specific issue,
provides vague rather than precise information on its position, and is
inconsistent in the positions it takes. (2) it theorizes and tests what
causes parties to take an ambiguous stance and how this varies
across context, parties, public opinion and issues, and (3) it
investigates the consequences of ambiguity on voters’ party
preferences. To achieve these goals, the project relies on a content
analysis of party messaging in Belgium during a 22-year period (2003
-2024), complemented by experiments with voters to assess how
ambiguity affects their preferences in a controlled setting. In doing
so, the project sheds clarity on ambiguity by advancing our
understanding of what party ambiguity is, what causes it, and what it
does to the public.

Keywords:party ambiguity, Issue voting, Issue congruence

Disciplines:Party politics, Political campaigns, Political communication, Voting behaviour