Unpacking EU return migration policy

Subtitle:A set-theoretic analysis of EU readmission and return policy with third countries

Abstract:The European Union’s cooperation with third countries on readmission and return varies to a
large extent. Both policies – return and readmission – are discussed as part of a package in the
EU context and moved to the centre of EU migration policy efforts towards third countries.
Yet, concluding agreements and informal arrangements on readmission has proven to be
challenging for the Union. The EU is not only concerned about the regulation of the
cooperation. It also seeks to enhance the return rates of irregular migrants, often framed in
terms of ensuring the ‘effectiveness’ of its return policy. The return rates, however, have stalled
or even declined since 2016. The differences and interconnections between readmission and
return policy have rarely been explored beyond small-n research designs.
This PhD dissertation seeks to fill this gap and investigates three aspects of EU readmission
and return policy with third countries: (1) the conditions under which the EU concludes
readmission agreements and arrangements; (2) the conditions under which the EU’s return rate
is high or low; and (3) the impact of readmission cooperation on return numbers. To that end,
a comparative research design with two fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA)
is developed. It identifies (combinations of) conditions which help to explain empirical
phenomena, here EU readmission and return cooperation. The examined conditions are:
migration flow; democracy; administrative capacities; economic dependence; existing
relations; incentives; bilateral readmission cooperation; and readmission cooperation (for the
second QCA on return cooperation). These conditions have been conceptually drawn from the
literature on EU external (migration) cooperation. Two fsQCA are conducted consecutively
with 57 third countries in the neighbourhood and beyond. The results of both fsQCA are
juxtaposed to establish the relationship between EU readmission and return cooperation.
Regarding the cooperation on readmission, countries geographically closer to the EU
concluded readmission agreements primarily due to their dependence on the EU; EU-offered
incentives played a bigger role for geographically more distant countries; additionally,
countries in Asia and Africa concluded informal arrangements often by means of pressure.
Regarding cooperation on return, high(er) return rates can be explained for two groups of
countries: countries with many irregular migrants if the EU offers incentives to countries with
high levels of administrative capacities and a high number of bilateral readmission agreements;
and countries with few irregular migrants if there are high levels of administrative capacities
and close existing relations with the EU. Overall, formal or informal readmission cooperation
has only a limited degree of influence on return rates/cooperation and if so, mostly concerns
countries in the Eastern neighbourhood.
The thesis provides new insights for our knowledge on the EU’s readmission and return
cooperation and critically discusses the issue of ‘effectiveness’ often voiced in relation to
migrant returns. In fact, this research strives for both an empirical and a theoretical contribution
to the field of EU readmission and return policy as well as EU external migration cooperation
more broadly.

Publication year:2023

Accessibility:Closed