Discretionary release and prison cells : simulating a shift from automatic to discretionary early release

Korte inhoud:In this paper, we assess the planned shift of early release decision-making for short-term prisoners in Belgium from the executive branch to the judiciary. Belgium voted in 2006 to shift early release decision-making to the judiciary, but government has only implemented this for prisoners with long sentences (over 3 years). The executive branch held control over the release of short-term prisoners, in part out of concerns over the impact on prison crowding. Based on decision-making by the judiciary for prisoners with a sentence over 3 years up to 5 years (the nearest comparable group) between February 1, 2007 and the end of 2014 (n = 1016), a fraction-based simulation study is conducted in order to assess the extra number of days spent in prison (short-term prisoners released in the same period: n = 45323) such a shift could entail. For a prison population with a daily average of 11578 prisoners in 2014 (the last year of the simulation data), a shift would lead to a surplus average of 2291 prisoners, thus raising crowding levels and the need for new prisons. This finding can inform current policy debates on imprisonment, prison crowding and prisoner release, which are briefly explored here.

Jaar van publicatie:2019